中国被迫(po)出(chu)兵朝鲜(xian)：决策过程及其原因
1950年(nian)10月25日，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)政府宣布派出中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)人(ren)民志(zhi)愿(yuan)军赴朝(chao)(chao)作(zuo)战(zhan)(zhan)，从而使中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)在“抗美援朝(chao)(chao)，保家卫国(guo)”的(de)(de)(de)名(ming)义下参与了朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)战(zhan)(zhan)争。从客(ke)观后(hou)(hou)果看，由于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)的(de)(de)(de)参战(zhan)(zhan)，朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)战(zhan)(zhan)争实质上成(cheng)为中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美之间的(de)(de)(de)一场大战(zhan)(zhan)，朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)半(ban)岛变成(cheng)了世界(jie)两(liang)大阵营对抗和冲(chong)突的(de)(de)(de)战(zhan)(zhan)场，而且最终确定了中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美苏三角关系(xi)(xi)及远东国(guo)际(ji)局(ju)(ju)势的(de)(de)(de)格局(ju)(ju)和走向。因(yin)此，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)出兵朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)的(de)(de)(de)决策过程(cheng)及其原因(yin)，是(shi)战(zhan)(zhan)后(hou)(hou)国(guo)际(ji)关系(xi)(xi)史(shi)和冷战(zhan)(zhan)史(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最令各国(guo)学者感兴趣的(de)(de)(de)题目之一。
西方研(yan)究者有(you)(you)一种观(guan)点认为，早在(zai)朝(chao)鲜(xian)战争(zheng)之(zhi)前，中国领(ling)导人就参与(yu)(yu)了(le)战争(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)策划(hua)和准备，甚至中国出(chu)(chu)兵朝(chao)鲜(xian)也是(shi)事先与(yu)(yu)斯大林和金日成达成协议(yi)的(de)(de)(de)。【1】前苏联关于(yu)朝(chao)鲜(xian)战争(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)档(dang)案(an)材料公(gong)布(bu)后，韩国更出(chu)(chu)现了(le)“东亚共产主义三角(jiao)同(tong)盟理论(lun)”，认为朝(chao)鲜(xian)战争(zheng)及中国出(chu)(chu)兵是(shi)毛(mao)泽东、斯大林和金日成早有(you)(you)预谋的(de)(de)(de)。【2】然(ran)而，对于(yu)有(you)(you)关苏联档(dang)案(an)材料进行(xing)(xing)分析之(zhi)后，我们得出(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)(de)结(jie)论(lun)与(yu)(yu)此(ci)并不相同(tong)。尽管人们期待着中国方面更多的(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)关档(dang)案(an)公(gong)布(bu)于(yu)世，但根(gen)据中国近几(ji)年已经出(chu)(chu)版的(de)(de)(de)大量文献(xian)和回忆(yi)录(lu)，还是(shi)可以得出(chu)(chu)这样(yang)的(de)(de)(de)看法：中国当时在(zai)朝(chao)鲜(xian)问题上的(de)(de)(de)举(ju)措属被动行(xing)(xing)为，毛(mao)泽东同(tong)意金日成采取军事手段解决朝(chao)鲜(xian)统一问题是(shi)被迫(po)的(de)(de)(de)，派兵入朝(chao)作(zuo)战更是(shi)出(chu)(chu)于(yu)迫(po)不得已。
一、中(zhong)国无意(yi)介入朝鲜冲突
朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)半岛在第二次(ci)世界(jie)大战结(jie)束时便(bian)成为美(mei)(mei)苏两国在远东争夺势力范(fan)围的(de)(de)主(zhu)要场所之一(yi)，其(qi)结(jie)果是以(yi)三八线(xian)将(jiang)朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)一(yi)分为二。美(mei)(mei)苏军队(dui)撤出朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)半岛后，朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)冲突便(bian)表现为南北两个独(du)立政府之间的(de)(de)朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)民族的(de)(de)内部斗(dou)争，而(er)美(mei)(mei)苏两国则退居幕后进(jin)行操纵。朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)南北双(shuang)方都有(you)意通过(guo)武(wu)力方式解(jie)决(jue)朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)民族的(de)(de)重(zhong)新统(tong)一(yi)问题，【3】而(er)在两大阵营(ying)已经形(xing)成的(de)(de)世界(jie)格(ge)局(ju)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，金日成作为苏联(lian)占(zhan)领军扶植和(he)培养出来的(de)(de)北朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)领袖，自然会求助于苏联(lian)，以(yi)及在抗日斗(dou)争中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)与朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)结(jie)成紧密关系的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国共产党(dang)。但是说到战争策划，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国与苏联(lian)、朝(chao)(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)之间的(de)(de)关系并(bing)不(bu)那么简单(dan)。
很多著作(zuo)提到(dao)(dao)在朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)争爆发前(qian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)把(ba)(ba)大量的(de)(de)朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)士(shi)(shi)兵(bing)送(song)回国(guo)，从(cong)而说明中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)参与(yu)或(huo)至少(shao)是(shi)(shi)支持了(le)北朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)军(jun)(jun)事行(xing)动。关(guan)于(yu)这(zhei)(zhei)方(fang)面的(de)(de)情况(kuang)大体是(shi)(shi)：早在1949年(nian)1月(yue)(yue)，李立三、周保中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)与(yu)崔庸健(jian)等人就在苏(su)联顾(gu)问(wen)的(de)(de)参与(yu)下，在哈(ha)尔滨举行(xing)过(guo)一次会议(yi)，讨论中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共军(jun)(jun)队中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)士(shi)(shi)兵(bing)回国(guo)的(de)(de)问(wen)题。会议(yi)决定到(dao)(dao)1949年(nian)底以前(qian)把(ba)(ba)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共第(di)四野(ye)(ye)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)军(jun)(jun)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)28000名(ming)朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)士(shi)(shi)兵(bing)送(song)回国(guo)。1949年(nian)7～8月(yue)(yue)，四野(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)以朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)士(shi)(shi)为主(zhu)的(de)(de)164、166师(shi)回到(dao)(dao)北朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)。这(zhei)(zhei)些战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)士(shi)(shi)回国(guo)后组(zu)成(cheng)(cheng)了(le)朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)人民(min)(min)军(jun)(jun)第(di)7师(shi)。【4】1950年(nian)1月(yue)(yue)，金(jin)(jin)(jin)日成(cheng)(cheng)又派朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)人民(min)(min)军(jun)(jun)作(zuo)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)部(bu)长(zhang)金(jin)(jin)(jin)光侠到(dao)(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)来，要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)把(ba)(ba)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)军(jun)(jun)队中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)14000名(ming)朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)士(shi)(shi)兵(bing)接(jie)回国(guo)。经过(guo)谈(tan)判商定，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)国(guo)方(fang)面同意(yi)将这(zhei)(zhei)些朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)士(shi)(shi)全部(bu)移交(jiao)朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)人民(min)(min)军(jun)(jun)。接(jie)着，金(jin)(jin)(jin)光侠又要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)让(rang)这(zhei)(zhei)批部(bu)队携带武(wu)器返回。经聂荣臻(zhen)请示中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央，1月(yue)(yue)22日批复同意(yi)。这(zhei)(zhei)些朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)士(shi)(shi)集结(jie)在河南省的(de)(de)郑州后便(bian)乘火车回国(guo)，并于(yu)4月(yue)(yue)18日到(dao)(dao)达元山(shan)。【5】从(cong)客观(guan)(guan)上讲(jiang)，这(zhei)(zhei)批朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍(ji)(ji)(ji)战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)士(shi)(shi)加入(ru)人民(min)(min)军(jun)(jun)，增强了(le)北朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)发动军(jun)(jun)事进攻的(de)(de)实力，金(jin)(jin)(jin)日成(cheng)(cheng)提出此(ci)项要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)也完(wan)全有(you)可能是(shi)(shi)出于(yu)这(zhei)(zhei)一目的(de)(de)。但(dan)是(shi)(shi)毛泽(ze)东的(de)(de)主(zhu)观(guan)(guan)意(yi)图却(que)与(yu)此(ci)没有(you)关(guan)系(xi)，因为在1949年(nian)底和1950年(nian)初他(ta)根本不同意(yi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)日成(cheng)(cheng)通过(guo)发动一场战(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)争来解(jie)决朝(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)统一问(wen)题。
1949年3月金(jin)日(ri)(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)访问(wen)莫斯(si)科时(shi)，便提出(chu)(chu)了(le)以(yi)武(wu)力解(jie)决统(tong)一(yi)问(wen)题(ti)(ti)的(de)可(ke)能性(xing)。但(dan)斯(si)大(da)林说“没(mei)有(you)必(bi)要”进攻(gong)南(nan)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)，只有(you)在(zai)对(dui)南(nan)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)军队进行(xing)反击(ji)(ji)(ji)时(shi)才可(ke)以(yi)越过三(san)八(ba)线(xian)。【6】遭到斯(si)大(da)林拒绝之(zhi)后，金(jin)日(ri)(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)曾(ceng)一(yi)度寄希(xi)望于(yu)(yu)得到中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)支持。4月下旬，金(jin)日(ri)(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)派(pai)遣内务副相兼(jian)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)人(ren)民军总政(zheng)治部部长金(jin)一(yi)秘(mi)密访问(wen)了(le)北(bei)平。金(jin)一(yi)向中(zhong)共领导人(ren)解(jie)释了(le)关于(yu)(yu)南(nan)北(bei)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)不(bu)能并(bing)(bing)存的(de)观点(dian)，强(qiang)调以(yi)武(wu)力解(jie)决南(nan)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)问(wen)题(ti)(ti)的(de)迫(po)切性(xing)。毛(mao)泽(ze)东(dong)同意(yi)金(jin)日(ri)(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)关于(yu)(yu)南(nan)北(bei)冲突在(zai)所难免的(de)看法，并(bing)(bing)认为即使美国(guo)(guo)(guo)不(bu)干(gan)涉，也(ye)会(hui)唆使日(ri)(ri)本(ben)参(can)加(jia)对(dui)北(bei)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)的(de)作战。毛(mao)泽(ze)东(dong)表示对(dui)此不(bu)必(bi)担心，因为苏联和(he)(he)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)都(dou)站在(zai)北(bei)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)一(yi)边，一(yi)旦情况(kuang)需(xu)要，中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)会(hui)派(pai)兵援助(zhu)。但(dan)是(shi)(shi)，毛(mao)泽(ze)东(dong)并(bing)(bing)不(bu)支持金(jin)日(ri)(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)立即实行(xing)武(wu)力统(tong)一(yi)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)的(de)计划。他告诉金(jin)一(yi)，在(zai)最近(jin)的(de)将来进攻(gong)南(nan)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)不(bu)现实的(de)。因为第一(yi)，总的(de)局势(shi)不(bu)利(li)；第二，中(zhong)共还在(zai)与蒋介石作战，还不(bu)能很有(you)效(xiao)地和(he)(he)大(da)规模地支援北(bei)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)。毛(mao)泽(ze)东(dong)说问(wen)题(ti)(ti)要等到中(zhong)共完全(quan)统(tong)一(yi)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)之(zhi)后再解(jie)决，还说所有(you)这些问(wen)题(ti)(ti)都(dou)必(bi)须同莫斯(si)科协(xie)商后才能解(jie)决。【7】显然，毛(mao)泽(ze)东(dong)在(zai)这里所说的(de)派(pai)兵援朝(chao)(chao)有(you)两个条(tiao)件，一(yi)是(shi)(shi)北(bei)朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)受到攻(gong)击(ji)(ji)(ji)而不(bu)是(shi)(shi)主动出(chu)(chu)击(ji)(ji)(ji)，二是(shi)(shi)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)统(tong)一(yi)大(da)业之(zhi)后。这就说明中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)同意(yi)让朝(chao)(chao)鲜(xian)(xian)籍战士回(hui)国(guo)(guo)(guo)与金(jin)日(ri)(ri)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)出(chu)(chu)发点(dian)根本(ben)不(bu)同。
有(you)(you)些研究(jiu)著作认(ren)为，在毛(mao)泽东(dong)访问(wen)莫斯科期间，曾与(yu)斯大林商议了朝鲜(xian)(xian)战争(zheng)的(de)问(wen)题。有(you)(you)人(ren)(ren)甚至认(ren)为当时的(de)会谈已达成(cheng)协议，由(you)苏联出武器而中(zhong)国出军队，帮助(zhu)金日成(cheng)发(fa)动进攻。还(hai)有(you)(you)人(ren)(ren)认(ren)为，关于发(fa)动战争(zheng)的(de)问(wen)题，是斯大林、毛(mao)泽东(dong)、金日成(cheng)在莫斯科共同(tong)商定的(de)。近几年，有(you)(you)关档案和回忆录披露(lu)了一些情况，使(shi)我们有(you)(you)可能对中(zhong)国是否在1950年初参与(yu)朝鲜(xian)(xian)战争(zheng)策划的(de)问(wen)题做出判断(duan)。
根据现(xian)有(you)材料看(kan)，毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)苏(su)(su)联期(qi)间(jian)确(que)曾与斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)谈(tan)到过朝鲜问(wen)(wen)题(ti)。据冈察(cha)洛夫(fu)等(deng)人(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)著作说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)，1989年(nian)苏(su)(su)共中(zhong)央曾命令在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)外(wai)交部档(dang)案中(zhong)查找有(you)关(guan)战争的(de)(de)(de)(de)档(dang)案，并发(fa)现(xian)一份(fen)1956年(nian)4月(yue)毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)同(tong)米(mi)高扬的(de)(de)(de)(de)谈(tan)话记录。毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)回忆起在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)访(fang)苏(su)(su)期(qi)间(jian)与斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)谈(tan)到过朝鲜问(wen)(wen)题(ti)。【8】但根据苏(su)(su)联档(dang)案材料看(kan)，毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)访(fang)苏(su)(su)期(qi)间(jian)并没有(you)与斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)讨论(lun)过金日成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)计划。根据青(qing)石的(de)(de)(de)(de)说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)法：毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)不同(tong)意也不重视金日成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)进攻计划，他(ta)担心的(de)(de)(de)(de)是出现(xian)相反(fan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)情况。会(hui)谈(tan)中(zhong)，毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)对(dui)斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)：朝鲜的(de)(de)(de)(de)问(wen)(wen)题(ti)，现(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不是北(bei)(bei)(bei)边(bian)(bian)(bian)进攻南(nan)边(bian)(bian)(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)问(wen)(wen)题(ti)，而是南(nan)边(bian)(bian)(bian)进攻北(bei)(bei)(bei)边(bian)(bian)(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)问(wen)(wen)题(ti)。南(nan)边(bian)(bian)(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)力量要比北(bei)(bei)(bei)边(bian)(bian)(bian)大(da)得多嘛(ma)，还有(you)美国(guo)军(jun)队(dui)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)那里嘛(ma)。现(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)问(wen)(wen)题(ti)是北(bei)(bei)(bei)边(bian)(bian)(bian)要保持主动，时刻有(you)所准备。【9】但是彼得洛夫(fu)说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)，俄国(guo)档(dang)案中(zhong)根本就(jiu)没有(you)关(guan)于金日成(cheng)计划的(de)(de)(de)(de)记录。他(ta)认为(wei)，即使(shi)斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)与毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)会(hui)谈(tan)时提到了(le)解放(fang)朝鲜问(wen)(wen)题(ti)，也很可能(neng)是最(zui)一般地说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)。因为(wei)毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)访(fang)苏(su)(su)时，斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)本身还没有(you)决(jue)定给金日成(cheng)开绿灯，而当时毛(mao)泽(ze)(ze)(ze)东(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)兴趣集中(zhong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)解放(fang)新(xin)疆(jiang)、西藏，首先是台(tai)湾的(de)(de)(de)(de)问(wen)(wen)题(ti)上，对(dui)他(ta)来说(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)(shuo)，朝鲜无疑是斯大(da)林(lin)(lin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)责任。【10】
另外，斯大林是1月30日回电同意金日成访苏的，而毛泽东是2月17日离开苏联的。这时，金日成可能还未到达莫斯科。即使他刚刚抵达，也没有证据说明斯大林、毛泽东和金日成曾举行过三方会晤。关于这一点，冈察洛夫等人1992年访问了陈兼，据陈兼说，他曾看过毛泽东的翻译师哲回忆录的手稿。手稿中说，斯大林告诉毛泽东：“金日成来了。他想对南方采取行动。金年轻而勇敢，然而，他过高估计了有利因素。”斯大林问毛泽东的意见，毛泽东说：“我们仍然应该帮助小金。”但接着又说：“朝鲜现在面临着复杂的局面。”【11】笔者1995年10月采访师哲时，证实了陈兼的说法。师哲还肯定地告诉笔者：毛泽东在莫斯科未见过金日成，对朝鲜问题也不感兴趣。【12】如果师哲的这个回忆是准确的，那么我们可以确定，即使毛泽东在莫斯科时已经知道金日成带着“对南方采取行动”的要求来见斯大林，从毛泽东的口气看，他仍然对采取这种行动持否定和怀疑的态度。【13】
